UK intelligence analyses impact of war on Russia's relations with former USSR countries

UK Defence Intelligence has analysed how Russia's ability to achieve its foreign policy goals in the region, including nations of the former USSR, has plummeted over the past two years.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence review dated 28 February on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The review noted that the war in Ukraine has caused a substantial shift in Russia's relations with the countries of the former Soviet Union.

"Russia almost certainly continues to see maintaining its influence in these countries as a foreign policy priority, crucial to domestic security and economic prosperity. Since February 2022, while there are variations between countries, Russia’s overall influence in its near neighbours has declined," the UK MoD pointed out.

UK Defence Intelligence stated that Russia's failure to achieve a breakthrough in the war has called into question Russia's role as a regional security guarantor.

"Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty has raised the prospect of a security threat from Russia itself," the review stressed.

UK intelligence has noted a growing tendency in these countries towards reducing their dependence on Russia.

"While Russia maintains a significant presence, both overt and covert, in the region, the Kremlin’s ability to achieve its aims and objectives has almost certainly declined significantly over the past two years," the analysts said.

Background: In a previous review, UK intelligence noted how Russia has used energy as a weapon since 2014 and concluded that this trend would continue.

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