UK intelligence assesses impact of winter weather on course of war

UK Defence Intelligence has assessed the current weather conditions in Ukraine and their impact on the battlefield, pointing out the complications of conducting operations for both the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Russians in worsening weather conditions.

Source: European Pravda, citing UK Defence Intelligence’s review on Twitter (X) dated 11 January

Details: UK Defence Intelligence said the weather in Ukraine is extremely cold at the moment, with temperatures not forecast to rise much above freezing over the next week, leading to lower ground temperatures..

With the freezing of the ground, conditions for movement in rough terrain will likely improve during January and February until the thaw in March. The thaw will lead to worsened conditions for movement.

Additionally, there is an increase in snow cover in Ukraine, and its depth will be a limiting factor for manoeuvrability.

As noted, the worsening conditions are compounded by short daylight hours, complicating operations for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Russians.

UK intelligence added that both sides will operate in cold weather and rely on night vision devices.

Background:

• In a previous review, UK intelligence analysed cases where the Russian forces accidentally dropped ammunition on Russian and occupied Ukrainian cities.
• Earlier, UK intelligence said the scale of the recent Russian missile attack on Ukraine on 8 January reflects the level of success of Ukrainian Forces in occupied Crimea on 4 December.

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