UK intelligence believes Russia is stockpiling missiles before strikes on Ukraine

UK Defence Intelligence has suggested that Russia has not launched missile strikes on Ukraine for three weeks due to the fact that the Russian Air Force is waiting for more missiles.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence review on Twitter (X) dated 13 October

Quote: "Russian Air Force Long Range Aviation (LRA) aircraft have not conducted a strike against Ukraine since 21 September 2023, a period of 21 days.

While such breaks have not been unusual, the last similar break in strikes occurred between 9 March and 28 April 2023, a period of 51 days. In that instance it was likely that LRA had almost depleted its stocks of capable AS-23 missile munitions following its winter campaign against Ukrainian critical national infrastructure.

This time, it is likely that Russian LRA are preserving existing stocks of AS-23 missiles as well as using this pause to increase useable stocks in anticipation of further heavy strikes against Ukraine over the winter."

Details: UK intelligence notes that Russia has recently focused its airstrikes on grain-related facilities in the south of Ukraine, using Shahed drones.

This included strikes on Ukrainian ports on the Danube River, likely requiring a high level of precision given the closeness of the target to the Romanian border.

UK intelligence suggested that Russia has used Shahed UAVs for these attacks, as these drones have superior accuracy compared to other types of air-launched missiles.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 13 October 2023.

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