UK property market surges but warnings of Budget’s impact linger

Transactions in the UK residential property hit over 100,000 in October, the highest since November 2022, as borrower confidence grew despite warnings over the impact of the Budget.

According to HMRC’s monthly data, residential transactions increased by 10 per cent from 91,690 in September to 100,410 in October.

Non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions also increased by 17 percent in October to 111,100 relative to September.

This comes after the highly anticipated Autumn Budget last month which included the announcement of more than £5bn of investment over 2025-2026 to deliver the government’s ambitious house-building programme.

Nicky Stevenson, managing director at national estate agent group Fine & Country said that October figures signalled “strong momentum in the housing market despite some caution following the Autumn Budget”.

While Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank explained that reason behind the drive was “the widespread availability of sub-4 per cent mortgages and a sense the Budget would be better than feared”.

However, he pointed out that “the risk facing buyers and sellers now is whether Labour’s economic plans will work.”

Following the Budget, it’s almost impossible to get a sub-4 per cent mortgage and if there is extended upwards pressure on unemployment, inflation and borrowing costs, a period of stagflation could put downwards pressure on house prices and transaction volumes

Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance stated that “the confidence in the market is promising”.

But he pointed out that the “full impact of the Budget has yet to be factored in, and therefore, a true indication of where we are at would be around Spring next year”.

He noted that a further cut in interest rates would help the market stay “productive and confident.”

Another factor experts highlighted is the upcoming hike in Stamp Duty, which the government revealed last month, as the amount of tax people pay when buying their second home will increase.

The aim behind the hike is to provide support for first-time buyers with second-time buyers set to pay five per cont tax on homes worth up to £250,000, up from three per cent.

Nathan Emerson, chief executive of Propertymark noted that “in England and Northern Ireland especially, the trend of increasing house transactions is likely set to continue as Stamp Duty increases loom from April 2025”.

“As we approach 2025, the property market is poised to remain steady with a cautious but optimistic outlook. External factors, including government policies and the broader economy, will shape the market’s trajectory,” Stevenson added.