UK set to miss EV sales targets by 2030 or 2035

The UK is set to significantly miss current targets for electric vehicle (EV) sales by either 2030 or 2035, when bans on the sale of petrol and diesel cars will be introduced, according to a new report.

Alixpartners’ Global Automotive Outlook found that battery-electric models are predicted to make up just 44 per cent of new vehicle sales by 2030 and 78 per cent by 2035.

Some 24 per cent of UK light vehicle sales are still expected to be internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 2030, with ICE vehicles forecast to represent around 10 per cent of light vehicle sales by 2035. It comes despite a looming ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars.

Labour has pledged to bring forward the current deadline of 2035 to 2030, should it win Thursday’s election.

The UK government’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate currently requires 80 per cent of new cars and 70 per cent of new vans sold in the UK to be zero emission by 2030. Carmakers will be forced to cough up fines of increasing severity should they fail to hit the targets.

Nick Parker, a senior partner in the Automotive & Industrial Practice at Alixpartners, said: “Battery electric vehicles face major hurdles within the U.K. market, with cost, charging infrastructure, charging time, and battery life preventing many from making the leap to net zero.

“Automakers and suppliers can and should prioritise making efficiencies to tackle battery electric vehicle costs. Our research reveals that there is a significant amount of cash trapped across UK supply chains, with large suppliers having added ‘just-in-case’ inventory prior to the Pandemic, which if repurposed, could support the transition to battery electric vehicles. 

“Some issues, however, cannot be resolved by car manufacturers alone. The General Election provides our country’s leaders with a clear opportunity to boost efforts to close the Zero Emission gap. But, while there has been much talk of investment into charging infrastructure, the next Government would be better advised to focus its efforts on making net zero vehicles affordable through vehicle subsidies.”

Britain is joined in its struggles to meet ZEV targets by France Germany and Italy, which are all predicted to fall short according to Alixpartners’ report.

Andrew Bergbaum, co-head of the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners, said: “Something to keep an eye on is whether lukewarm consumer appetite for fully electric models begins to steer the industry towards hybrid-hydrogen models as we edge closer to the 2035 zero-emission deadline.

“While it would need to be rolled out at significant scale to manage the costs, hydrogen carries significant potential as a zero-emission fuel and has yet to be fully explored or invested in.” 

However, Quentin Wilson, the motoring journalist and founder of FairchargeUK, argued the report was “fatally flawed” regarding EV demand’s impact on hybrid-hydrogen models.

“There are only a handful of hydrogen cars registered in the UK with most experts dismissing hydrogen cars as far too expensive. As EV prices fall, both new and used, we will see faster rates of adoption. Six years is still a long time.”