Ukraine can receive Taurus missiles if CDU party wins early election in Germany – former Ukrainian ambassador

Andrii Melnyk, a former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, believes Ukraine will get Taurus long-range missiles if the Christian Democratic Union wins early elections in Germany and CDU leader Friedrich Merz becomes chancellor.

Source: Melnyk in an interview with Radio Liberty, as reported by European Pravda

Details: Melnyk said that Merz, who is expected to become chancellor, has repeatedly spoken about the need to deploy Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Quote: "I cannot imagine in any scenario of this coalition, even if the Social Democrats become a ‘minor partner in it, that they will block it [the provision of missiles]," according to the diplomat.

Merz's odds of replacing Social Democrat Olaf Scholz as Germany's chancellor are predicted at 99%. The remaining one percent Melnyk describes as "something unpredictable."

"For this to happen, there should be some kind of a political earthquake, a super-scandal, which the Russians can easily ferment. Unfortunately, they are capable of this. Some form of scandal, which, for example, will result in image losses for the future Chancellor Merz, in order to prevent this from happening," Melnyk added.

Germany is holding early elections on 23 February, but Ukraine will not be able to receive the Taurus missiles until the end of April, according to the diplomat. According to him, this is a positive circumstance.

"Typically, coalition negotiations last at least two months. This is typical. Perhaps a little longer. That is, the current government will continue to discharge its obligations until that time... This suggests that nothing will likely happen in the next nearly six months. What will happen in six months, given what will happen in America, and so on, – I don't want to make baseless predictions today," the diplomat said.

Background: 

• The Taurus debate has resumed after the US lifted restrictions on the use of long-range weapons by Ukraine to strike Russian territory, and Germany is approaching early elections. 
• The leader of the largest opposition party, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany, Friedrich Merz, who has a good chance of becoming the next chancellor, is in favour of the Taurus transfer, while the Social Democratic Party of Germany partners are also in favour of the decision, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz insists that he will not do so.
• Recently, Spiegel published an editorial harshly criticising Scholz for delaying the decision.
• More than 60% of Germans oppose providing Ukraine with Taurus missiles.

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