Ukraine faces deepening demographic crisis as deaths outpace births 3 to 1

Ukraine's birth rate plummeted since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, with Opendatabot reporting a decrease from 132,595 newborns in the first half of 2021 to just 87,655 in the same period of 2024.

Aug 5, 2024 - 21:16

Ukraine faces deepening demographic crisis as deaths outpace births 3 to 1

A baby sleeping on Ukrainian soldier's equipment.

The birth rate in Ukraine saw a significant decline, dropping by 9% compared to the same period last year, Opendatabot shows.

Factors contributing to this decline include the war, emigration, and historically low birth rates, which caused Ukraine’s population to decrease from 52 million in 1991 to an estimated 30-35 million currently.

More starkly, compared to pre-invasion figures from 2021, the number of newborns decreased by approximately 1.5 times, from 132,595 to the current 87,655 children, while the death figure is three times higher – 250,972 in 2024, according to Opendatabot.

The ratio of births to deaths reached a critical point, with one birth for every three deaths. This proportion is considered a key indicator of a demographic crisis. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, between 2018 and 2020, the ratio stood at one birth for every two deaths.

Despite the concerning birth rates, the mortality figures improved. The number of deaths in the first half of 2024 is 1.4 times lower than the same period in 2021, which saw 349,041 deaths. However, it’s important to note that 2021 marked the peak of COVID-19-related mortality in Ukraine.

Kyiv leads in birth registrations with 9,695 newborns, followed by Lviv Oblast with 7,923 and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with 6,962.

In contrast, frontline oblasts such as Kherson and Donetsk reported significantly lower numbers, with 221 and 702 births, respectively. The Luhansk Oblast registered no births in the last six months.

The highest mortality rates were observed in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (27,374 deaths), Kharkiv Oblast (17,999), Kyiv (17,449), and Odesa Oblast (16,085). The frontline oblasts of Kherson and Donetsk, along with the Chernivtsi Oblast, reported the lowest number of deaths.

Opendatabot’s data from last year showed that the birthrate in Ukraine fell by 28% in 2023 compared to 2021, primarily due to the ongoing war with Russia. In the first half of 2023, 96,755 children were born, down from 135,079 in the same period of 2021.

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