Ukraine's Defence Intelligence believes that Russia is preparing for offensive in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts but lacks forces

Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, has suggested that Russia is preparing for an offensive in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts in Ukraine's north-east.

Source: The Economist

Details: Skibitskyi says that the timing of this operation depends on the strength of Ukraine's defences in Donbas. But he suggests that the main Russian offensive will begin "in late May or early June".

He also said that Russia has deployed 514,000 troops in the Ukrainian operation, which is higher than the 470,000 estimate given last month by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Christopher Cavoli.

The Defence Intelligence official also said that Russia's northern grouping, based across the border from Kharkiv Oblast, currently has 35,000 troops but plans to expand to 50,000 to 70,000. The Russians are also "generating a division of reserves" (i.e., 15,000 to 20,000 troops) in central Russia, which they can add to the main force.

This is "not enough" for an operation to capture a major city, Skibitskyi says, a view shared by Western militaries, but it could be enough for a smaller task.

Quote from Skibitskyi: "A quick operation to come in and come out: maybe. But an operation to take Kharkiv, or even Sumy city, is of a different order. The Russians know this. And we know this."

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