Ukraine’s economic growth expected to reach 4% in 2024, but slow in 2025 due to labor shortages
A return to Black Sea trade boosts 2024 growth, but labor and energy constraints dampen longer-term prospects.
Analysts from Fitch Ratings forecast a slowdown in Ukraine’s economic growth due to ongoing labor and energy shortages.
As of December 2024, the war in Ukraine continues to significantly impact the country’s economic situation. The GDP remains approximately 22% below pre-war levels, with growth in mid-2024 indicating some recovery but still far from full stabilization.
The international agency notes that overall economic growth in 2024 is expected to reach 4%, driven by the revival of trade activity in the Black Sea, high public spending, and household incomes benefiting from real wage growth.
“Although Ukraine has demonstrated resilience and adaptability to the war, we forecast growth to slow down to 2.9% in 2025 due to continued labor and energy shortages,” said Fitch Ratings.
Experts also suggest that “a durable and credible ceasefire could significantly lift the country’s growth prospects in 2025-2026.”
Fitch Ratings forecasts that inflation in Ukraine will average 9.3% in 2025.
“Rapid wage growth amid labor shortages and skills mismatches could maintain domestic demand price pressures,” analysts emphasized.
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