Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast encourages Russia to exchange prisoners of war – ISW

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed that the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast is likely to increasingly encourage Russia to engage in prisoner-of-war exchanges.

Source: ISW

Details: Ukraine and Russia carried out a one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange on 18 October, marking the fourth such exchange since Ukraine began operations in Kursk Oblast in August 2024. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on 19 October that 95 Ukrainian POWs were returned, including servicemen who defended the Azovstal Steel Plant in Mariupol in early 2022, Ukrainian National Guards, State Border Service personnel, and employees of other branches of Ukraine's defence forces. On the same day, the Russian Ministry of Defence reported that Russia also brought back 95 of its POWs, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) mediating the exchange. 

The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs highlighted that many of the returning Ukrainian prisoners suffered from serious illnesses, severe injuries, and weight loss due to torture and malnutrition during their captivity in Russia. 

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) previously noted a sharp increase in the frequency of POW exchanges between Ukraine and Russia following Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast on 6 August. 

Prior to the latest 18 October exchange, both sides had exchanged 267 POWs each in three separate exchanges since then, whereas only three exchanges took place between 1 January and 6 August 2024.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 19 October:

• Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the Kremniy El microelectronic plant in Bryansk (Russia) on the night of 18-19 October.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted a one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange on 18 October – the fourth exchange since the start of Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast in August 2024.
• Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office reported on 18 October that Ukrainian authorities opened an investigation into the execution of a Ukrainian prisoner of war (POW) in Bakhmut district in September 2024.
• Russian forces recently advanced within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk oOblast and near the settlements of Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk.

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