Ukraine’s spy chief expects 2025 ceasefire but warns peacekeeping missions will fail without NATO guarantees
Budanov's surprising ceasefire prediction comes amid escalating US-Ukraine tensions and growing European alarm over Trump's unilateral approach to Russia negotiations.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, believes a ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine can be reached in 2025 despite starkly opposing positions between the sides.
On 12 February, Trump announced the start of negotiations with Moscow to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, following calls with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin. His statement triggered a wave of criticism, as experts warned that it could be a ceasefire on Putin’s terms with a lack of security guarantees for Ukraine, especially after US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called Ukraine’s NATO membership aspirations “unrealistic.” This conversation also stirred concerns in Europe, as its representatives were not involved in the negotiations. Amid uncertainty about whether the US will lead to a weakening of NATO due to its increasingly isolationist stance, many media outlets and analysts have labeled this strategy as a victory for Russia.
Speaking to journalist Eynulla Fatullayev, Budanov said that “most factors indicate” that a ceasefire “will happen.”
“I think so. It’s a paradox. Despite the vastly different starting positions, I believe we will reach a ceasefire this year,” stated Ukraine’s intelligence chief.
However, he cautioned that its duration and effectiveness remain uncertain.
Budanov also dismissed the idea that foreign troops in Ukraine could serve as a reliable security guarantee, arguing that peacekeeping missions have historically failed in their primary objectives.
“Can this be considered a guarantee? It’s questionable—let’s just say, very much in doubt,” he said.
He stressed that Ukraine’s only real security guarantee is NATO membership.
Previously, Budanov reassured Ukrainians of the country’s resilience, stating simply: “We will endure.”
Earlier, US President Donald Trump labeled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and threatened Zelenskyy must quickly secure peace or risk losing his country.
Trump also claimed Ukraine provoked Russia’s 2022 invasion, repeating Russian propaganda talking points.
Reality check: Zelenskyy’s approval is 54%, not 4% as Trump claims—and it still beats Trump’s
Related:
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- Putin claims Trump assured Ukraine’s inclusion in peace talks despite recent exclusion
- Reality check: Trump says Zelenskyy was asleep during Treasury Secretary Bessent’s visit
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