Ukrainian forces deploy armoured vehicles to left-bank Kherson Oblast – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based on analysed Russian information, has reported that the Ukrainian Defence Forces have deployed a limited number of armoured vehicles to the left (eastern) bank of Kherson Oblast.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces had deployed a limited number of armoured vehicles to the left (eastern) bank of Kherson Oblast and are continuing more large-scale ground operations involving a light infantry group of approximately battalion size.

Russian military bloggers zoomed in on a picture on 6 November supposedly of a Ukrainian amphibious tracked vehicle transporting an infantry fighting vehicle to the eastern bank near the village of Krynky (30 kilometres northeast of Kherson and 2 kilometres from the Dnipro River).

Other military bloggers claimed on 7 November that a Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicle had crossed the Dnipro River on its own near Krynky, and zoomed in on some footage on 7 November that supposedly showed a destroyed Western amphibious armoured combat vehicle at an unspecified location on the eastern bank.

Some of the Russian military bloggers stated that one or two Ukrainian armoured combat vehicles had crossed the Dnipro River near Krynky, while others noted that Ukrainian forces had deployed several armoured combat vehicles to the area.

In addition, Russian informants claimed that more than 300 Ukrainian soldiers (approximately a battalion) were operating on the eastern bank in the area of Krynky, and that Ukrainian forces were holding positions in the centre of Krynky and surrounding areas.

Another military blogger said that several hundred Ukrainian defenders are operating along the entire eastern bank of Kherson Oblast.

The ISW, with reference to Russian military bloggers, noted that fighting continues near Krynky, as well as near Poima (12 kilometres east of Kherson and 4 kilometres from the Dnipro River), Pishchanivka (13 kilometres east of Kherson and 3 kilometres from the Dnipro River) and Pidstepne (17 kilometres east of Kherson and 4 kilometres from the Dnipro River), but that Ukrainian alleged attempts to advance on 6 and 7 November were not particularly large-scale compared to previous days.

The ISW pointed out that the Defence Forces presumably launched the first attacks across the Dnipro River on the left (eastern) bank of Kherson Oblast on 17 and 18 October.

Quote: "The reported battalion-size Ukrainian force grouping on the east bank suggests that heavy Russian interdiction efforts along the Dnipro River have not prevented Ukrainian forces from transferring additional personnel and materiel to positions on the east bank. 

ISW will not speculate on the prospects of ongoing Ukrainian activity on the east bank of Kherson Oblast."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 7 November: 

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces transferred a limited number of armoured vehicles to the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and are continuing larger-than-usual ground operations on the east bank with a light infantry grouping of roughly battalion size.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 7 November.
• A prominent pro-war Russian milblogger who is typically optimistic about Russian capabilities expressed a relatively pessimistic assessment of the war and emphasised the need for the Kremlin to fully mobilise the Russian economy and defence industrial base (DIB) to a wartime footing to win.
• Russian authorities detained Republic of Dagestan's Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs on the pretext of corruption charges, likely in an effort to demonstrate that the federal government is taking action in Dagestan without drawing further attention to the interethnic and interreligious tensions and the propensity for destabilisation in the region.
• The Ukrainian strike on a Russian shipyard in Kerch, occupied Crimea on 4 November significantly damaged a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) naval vessel.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas.
• A Russian battalion comprised of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) will likely deploy to Ukraine in the near future in an apparent violation of the Geneva Convention on Prisoners of War.
• Kremlin-appointed Commissioner on Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova advertised several benefit schemes targeting children in occupied Ukraine as part of the "A Country for Children" strategic programme.

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