Ukrainian troops dig trenches in Russia's Kursk Oblast, planning to stay there – Forbes

Ukrainian troops are digging trenches in Russia's Kursk Oblast, and this is a sign that they plan to stay there, Forbes writes.

Source: Forbes

Quote from Forbes: "Every day the Russians don’t counterattack is a day the Ukrainians dig in deeper. On the sixth day of Ukraine’s advance into Kursk Oblast in southern Russia, there’s growing evidence the Ukrainian invasion corps—some or all of up to five 2,000-person brigades plus at least one 400-person independent battalion—plans to stay."

Details: Forbes emphasises that the Russians are also digging in, anticipating a static war along or near the existing line of contact.

Quote from Forbes: "That both sides are fortifying their positions doesn’t mean the Ukrainians are done advancing. Nor does it mean the Russians can’t counterattack – and push the Ukrainians back to the border, 10 miles [16 kilometres - ed.] away. But it does mean that stabilisation of the front line – and a long-term Ukrainian occupation of part of Kursk – is on the table."

Forbes quotes a Russian propagandist who watched Ukrainian troops digging trenches in Kursk Oblast on Sunday. He described it as "the worst thing that can happen" and added: "Once the enemy [as the Russians call the Ukrainian military – ed.] picks up shovels, in two days it will be just as difficult to take the forest stands as it was near Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine."

Forbes also cites Ukrainian sources as saying that industrial excavators operate on both sides of the frontline.

Quote from Forbes: "It took the Russian military six months to roll back Ukrainian defences in Avdiivka—and cost it tens of thousands of casualties. Arguably, the Russians won the battle for Avdiivka in mid-February only because the Ukrainians ran out of ammunition following months of delays in U.S. aid to Ukraine orchestrated by Russia-friendly lawmakers in the US Congress. Now that U.S. aid is flowing again, Russian forces around the Kursk salient can’t count on the Ukrainian invasion corps running out of ammo. To push potentially thousands of Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, they’ll have to capture one trench at a time."

The publication emphasises that "the window of opportunity" for a possible Russian counterattack is "rapidly closing" as Ukrainian troops are rapidly building trenches and Russian reinforcement convoys "are met by Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups, drones and artillery".

Also, Forbes reports the Ukrainians have already deployed potentially more than 10,000 troops in Sumy and the adjacent Kursk Oblast.

The Ukrainian Center for Defence Strategies reports that Russia’s the Sever (North) troop grouping is attempting to deploy 10 to 11 battalions to the line of contact, possibly 4,000.

The publication notes that these ten Russian battalions are only the initial echelon. On paper, the Sever (North) troop grouping has 48,000 troops. Many are stuck in Vovchansk, the site of the Russian offensive across the Russian-Ukrainian border in May. But if Russia abandons its offensive in Vovchansk and other frontline towns, it could move significant forces into Kursk.

Forbes suggests that the entry of Ukrainian troops into Kursk Oblast of the Russian Federation may be aimed at drawing back some Russian troops stationed in the eastern parts of Ukraine.

Quote from Forbes: "Once the trenches are complete, that diversion could become long-term – if not permanent."

Background: 

• On the morning of 6 August, the Russians claimed that Ukrainian forces had mounted an attempt to infiltrate Kursk Oblast, Russia. Russian propagandists and military bloggers are claiming that Ukrainian forces have secured a foothold in the border area. Russian leader Vladimir Putin called the situation a "provocation".
• The Ukrainian side has not yet officially commented on the events in Kursk Oblast.
• A state of emergency was declared in Kursk Oblast on 7 August, two days after the Ukrainian incursion.
• Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), having analysed the data collected, confirmed the advance of Ukrainian troops up to 10 kilometres deep into Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
• Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the US Department of State, stated that the US did not receive any notification from Ukraine of any operation in Kursk Oblast. He added that "it’s not unusual for the Ukrainians not to notify us of their exact tactics before they execute them" and that the Ukrainians "do not violate our policy".
• On 8 August, Russia’s Defence Ministry confirmed the advance of supposedly Ukrainian forces in two districts of Kursk Oblast and noted that it had moved reserves to the border and was "attacking Ukrainian troops from the air". 

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