UN: Ukraine’s population drops by 10 million since Russia’s all-out war began
It's a roughly 25% population decline since February 2022, driven by 6.7 million refugees abroad, record-low fertility rates, and war casualties.
Ukraine has experienced a devastating demographic decline since Russia’s full-scale invasion, losing approximately 10 million people – about a quarter of its population – the United Nations reported on 22 October, as per Reuters.
According to Florence Bauer, Eastern Europe head at the UN Population Fund, speaking at a Geneva news conference, the Russian invasion that began in February 2022 has severely worsened Ukraine’s already challenging demographic situation.
“The birth rate plummeted and is currently at around one child per woman, which is one of the lowest in the world,” Bauer said at the conference, noting that maintaining a stable population requires a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman.
The largest factor in the current population decline is the refugee crisis, with 6.7 million Ukrainians now living abroad, primarily in Europe, according to the UN Population Fund. War casualties have also contributed to the decline, though Bauer noted that precise numbers are difficult to determine.
“It’s difficult to have exact numbers, but estimates range around tens of thousands of casualties,” she said.
Bauer emphasized that a complete assessment of the war’s impact on Ukraine’s population would require a full census, which can only be conducted after the war ends. The immediate impact is particularly visible in nearly depopulated regions and villages where only elderly residents remain, while many couples are unable to start families.
The UN Population Fund also noted that Russia, despite its much larger pre-war population of over 140 million, has experienced its own demographic challenges since its full-scale invasion began, recording its lowest birth rate since 1999 in the first six months of 2024 – a level that even the Kremlin has described as “catastrophic.”
Related:
- Ukraine’s demographic crisis strains military as young men dwindle
- Ukraine faces deepening demographic crisis as deaths outpace births 3 to 1
- Government-controlled part of Ukraine lost 2.4 million citizens due to migration during the war (2023)
- Ukraine’s population to “catastrophically” shrink to 35 million by 2030, demographers predict
- Russia continues to replace Ukrainians with imported Russians in occupied territories – ISW
- Russian company relocated to Siberia 2,000 Ukrainian miners with their families
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