US intelligence officials estimate Tehran does not have full control of its proxy groups

Intelligence officials have calculated that Tehran does not have full control over its proxy groups in the Middle East, including those responsible for attacking and killing U.S. troops in recent weeks, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

The Quds Force — an elite branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps — is responsible for sending weapons and military advisers as well as intelligence to support militias in Iraq and Syria as well as the Houthis in Yemen. The groups have varying ambitions and agendas, which sometimes overlap, but Tehran does not appear to have complete authority over their operational decision-making, the officials said.

While the disclosure means it may be particularly hard to predict what actions these groups will take, it also could lower the chance of the U.S. getting pulled into a direct confrontation with Iran. Any indication that Tehran was directly involved in ordering or overseeing the attacks would make U.S. retaliation against Iran more likely.

Reports have indicated that the U.S. is considering striking Iranian targets in Iraq and Syria in response to the Jordan attack. But Biden officials have not publicly discussed their planning.

Washington does not have a regular, direct line of communication with Tehran and with the escalating violence in the region, the Biden administration has sought to understand the extent to which the regime has been involved in directing attacks on U.S. troops.

While Iran is supporting the proxy groups financially and with military equipment, intelligence officials do not believe it is commanding the attacks. Its lack of control over the Houthis and the militias in Iraq and Syria has muddied the deliberations in Washington about how to respond to repeated attacks on U.S. interests in the region, including the attack in Jordan Jan. 28 that killed three American troops.

“This is perhaps the most complicated period that I have seen in this region,” one of the U.S. officials said.

The U.S. does not assess that Tehran is directing all of the attacks in the region, but it knows it is fueling the crisis — and the administration holds Iran at least partially responsible.

“I do hold … them responsible in the sense that they're supplying the weapons to the people who did it,” Biden told reporters Tuesday.

The administration has had to walk a fine line in how it responds to drone attacks on troops in Iraq and Syria, along with the Houthis targeting ships in the Red Sea. And it will have to consider how to measure its response to the attack that killed three U.S. troops in Jordan.

Hit back too harshly and the administration risks escalating the violence and drawing itself closer to a direct conflict with Iran. But if the U.S. is too weak in how it retaliates, the Iran-backed groups will likely continue attacking, putting more U.S. troops' lives at risk.

There’s a chance the attacks from at least one of the groups — Kataib Hezbollah — will soon stop. The group operates in Iraq and has played a part in the hundreds of drone attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq. It is also part of the umbrella group the Islamic Resistance Group in Iraq that U.S. officials blame for the attack in Jordan.

It issued an unusual statement Jan. 30 saying it would cease operations against the United States.

“As far as we know, that is a credible and accurate statement of their intent,” one of the officials said. “I think it's no coincidence that they put that out after the Tower 22 attack that killed three U.S. servicemen.”

Intelligence officials do expect the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea to continue, the officials said. The group has targeted dozens of international freighters, including an American ship.

The intelligence community had originally calculated that the Houthis would try to avoid a conflict with the U.S. in the aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. But that calculation changed when the group expanded its targeting in the Red Sea, in December and after the U.S. Navy — which said it acted in self-defense — sank four Houthi boats and killed ten militants. Now, intelligence officials say the group is likely to continue its campaign until Israel agrees to a cease-fire or an end to the fighting in Gaza.

If the hostilities in Gaza were to come to an end, intelligence officials estimate that there would at least be a tactical pause in the region by all Iran-backed groups.

The administration is currently trying to broker such a deal between Israel and Hamas — one that would potentially lead to the release of all of the hostages still being held in Gaza.