Vance was supposed to help Ohio Republicans. So why is he absent from this key race?

TOLEDO, Ohio — Republicans excitedly declared in July that Donald Trump’s decision to pick Sen. JD Vance as his running mate would help them win battleground congressional districts in Ohio.

Three months later, that doesn’t seem to be playing out in one of the state’s toughest elections — where the GOP is looking for any boost it can get as it tries to oust the longest-serving woman in the House.

Republicans had seen Rep. Marcy Kaptur's seat as one of their top pickup opportunities. And several factors went their way this cycle: The party drew a redder district in recent redistricting and they avoided the perils of a candidate with significant personal issues — a critical problem in 2022 that led to Kaptur winning by 13 points.

The GOP hoped Vance could give the party the final leg up it needed. At the Republican convention, two days after Trump selected his running mate, House GOP campaign arm Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) said Vance “sets Ohio on fire” and would provide a “real lift” in key House races.

But a recent poll had Kaptur with a 10-point lead over Republican Derek Merrin, and the Ohio senator turned vice presidential candidate has barely factored into the matchup.

Vance is conspicuously absent from local billboards that prominently feature Trump, Merrin and GOP Senate candidate Bernie Moreno. He’s not been a part of Republican advertising on broadcast, either, according to a POLITICO review of AdImpact data, despite a plethora of outside spending. And in more than a dozen interviews in the Rust Belt district the day after Vance’s effective debate performance, local voters, politicians and union representatives were either apathetic or outright negative about him.

“I don't think [Trump and Vance] have very good character. The things they say, like just last night on the debate. … A lot of the things [Vance] was saying, just like Trump, were outrageous and inflammatory,” said Stephanie Garcia, a 55-year-old insurance worker who paused to talk on the streets of downtown Toledo and indicated she supports Kaptur. “Business wise, it might be best for the country, but character is a big deal for me.”

“I literally have members who told me: ‘I'm voting for Trump, but I'm splitting the ticket. I'm going to vote for Marcy, and I'm going to vote for Sen. [Sherrod] Brown.’ Because they see them in action,” said UAW Local 14 President Tony Totty.

Even for voters who support Merrin and Trump, Vance hadn’t factored into their decision. He was largely unknown to some before the debate.

“I didn't really know anything about [Vance], even though we're both from Ohio, but I thought he really did good [in the debate],” said Darlene Fisher, standing outside of a Kroger grocery store. She was supporting Merrin because “Marcy's been in there too long. I know her personally. She needs to retire.”

While GOP leaders had crowed about Vance after Trump picked him in July, rank-and-file Republicans more quietly expressed fears that he didn’t bring much to the ticket as a senator from a solid-red state with a political worldview similar to Trump's. And if Republicans aren’t using Vance as an asset here in Toledo, it begs the question: Where does he help the party this cycle?

Kaptur has embraced a now-viral clip that concerns Vance from last year’s UAW strike — when she quipped at him at the picket line: “First time here?” Besides that, Kaptur is steering clear of the vice presidential candidate and trying to keep the highly partisan national atmosphere out of her campaign.

Recalling that moment in an interview after finishing an event at the Lucas County Commission offices, Kaptur grew animated: “What does he know about the auto industry and the trucking industry?”

Kaptur has defied political gravity in a district that favored Trump by 3 points in 2020 by keeping close ties at the local level. She’s represented the area for over forty years, and signs of her influence are everywhere. She spoke with POLITICO next to a display in a local county office dedicated to “Lucas County’s Wall of Friends” — where Kaptur was prominently featured.

Just a day after the vice presidential debate and Vance’s strong performance, Kaptur shrugged off any effect he’d have down-ballot: “I think he has high ambitions, and so he's been successful in getting elected in Ohio, but he hasn't had time, really to have any results.” Vance was first elected to the Senate two years ago and built a career largely outside of politics before that.

Another point working against Republicans: Democrats’ switch at the top of the presidential ticket over the summer negated a lot of their extreme top-of-the-ticket liability. A late-July survey after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race showed Trump and Harris basically tied in the district, while Biden had a favorable rating of just 36 percent and a 60 percent unfavorable rating. Vance, who narrowly lost the district in his 2022 Senate race, had a 48 percent unfavorable rating.

Still, Republicans project confidence about the district moving in their direction. Ticket splitting between presidential and House candidates is always a tough swing, and at least some of Kaptur's 2022 victory is attributable to flawed GOP candidate J.R. Majewski.

"After 41 years in Congress with almost nothing to show for it, Marcy Kaptur has left Ohioans behind and Derek Merrin is strategically positioned to capitalize on the Trump/Vance momentum — flipping this seat red and ending Kaptur's tenure of inaction," said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for House Republicans' campaign arm.

Merrin declined an interview request for this story. He instead sent a statement, saying he was running “to bring the fresh leadership Northwest Ohio needs to fight for those in our community who are truly hurting due to the skyrocketing inflation of the Biden/Kaptur economy. I'm proud to support the Trump/Vance ticket because their economic policies are going to put the American people first and bring back the American dream."

A Vance spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

And it's not just in this district that Vance is a non-issue. He hasn't popped up as a surrogate for Moreno in the Senate race, nor is he a presence in the state's other competitive congressional race in Northeast Ohio, where first-term Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes is seeking a second term.

Some Republicans defended the party's lack of focus on Vance, saying that with Ohio sliding toward Trump, the senator's time would be better served in more competitive swing states.

“He's got a lot on his plate,” said Republican state Rep. Josh Williams, who represents a Toledo-area district. “He’s been here advocating for change here in Ohio. I believe that there's enough momentum here in Ohio for a true shift in politics here.”

Much of Merrin’s argument against Kaptur has centered around the common battleground theme of immigration, and Republicans have also used the career-politician criticism against her in ads. “Marcy Kaptur has been in Congress for 40 years, 40 years of voting for open borders,” declared a recent National Republican Congressional Committee spot.

Kaptur, like many purple-district Democrats this cycle, pointed to the bipartisan border bill torpedoed by Republicans this Congress as part of the work she and other lawmakers had done to address a surge in migration at the southern border. And she embraces her lengthy tenure in Congress head-on.

“I think one of the problems the country is having right now is people don't stay in elected office long enough,” she said, pointing to long-term problems facing the region like water quality in the Great Lakes or rail infrastructure. “We have to have people who are experienced, and I just think that people have to dedicate their lives to the Republic, to their communities. ... We can't have green people being elected at every level who come with no experience in governance.”

Her longevity has given her a boost in name recognition, though that could also cut against her. The seniority issue elicited strong opinions from voters. Robert Voltz, a 42-year-old Jeep worker out walking his dog who said he was undecided on the House race, said: "I know who Marcy is. I don’t know who her opponent is.” And Susan Hinkel offered an expletive for Kaptur as she left Kroger, adding: “Time for her to go home.”

The 78-year-old Kaptur isn't giving any hints about her future retirement plans if she wins reelection.

“I don't know that answer, but the seniority I hold belongs to the people I represent,” she said. "They stuck with me through thick and thin, and I hope they'll say the same about me someday, that I stuck with them through thick and thin.”