War of drones: can Ukraine keep its assymetric advantage?

“With so many drones on the frontline, someone must be producing them, right?”  Kyrylo Budanov, Ukrainian spy chief

Drones have become pivotal in the Ukrainian war, with both sides rapidly adapting to evolving technologies. Initially, Ukraine had the upper hand with Turkish-made Bayraktar drones, which wreaked havoc on Russian forces. However, Russia quickly adjusted its tactics and bolstered its air defenses to counter these threats.

Ukraine then shifted to improvised quadrocopter Mavic drones, known as “wedding drones,” which acted as drone bombers, providing  Ukrainian troops with a form of “pocket artillery.” Yet Russia flooded the frontlines with electronic warfare systems to suppress these smaller drones.

Now, long-range drones, enabling Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory, and sea drones for attacking ships in the Black Sea, are at the forefront. Ukraine had to develop these advanced systems independently, as allies like the US declined to provide long-range missiles.

“Ukraine is a global leader in naval drones. It is the only country in the world with proven combat experience using unmanned combat vehicles, with great success: the Crimean Bridge, Russian oil depots, and warships. The marine drones are exclusively of Ukrainian development and production,” Ukrainian military expert Yevhen Dykyi told Euromaidan Press.

This rapid drone evolution highlights the adaptability of both militaries in the conflict. Ukraine’s agile drone development, from improvised to advanced systems, has been a necessity due to limited external support. Russia has also demonstrated its ability to adjust tactics, but Ukraine’s ongoing drone innovation maintains a crucial asymmetric advantage.

Looking ahead, drones and counter-drone technologies are likely to play a critical role in determining the war’s outcome. Russia’s ability to suppress Ukrainian drones may impact its capacity to sustain offensives, while Ukraine’s long-range drones could continue to strike high-value targets deep within Russian territory.

More broadly, this war offers a glimpse into the future of warfare, where both sides employ interconnected drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Rapid adaptation and asymmetric technological advantages may prove decisive as improvised and advanced drones shape an autonomous, AI-enabled battlespace.

Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian targets

According to the BBC, there have been almost 200 suspected drone attacks this year in Russia and in Russian-annexed Crimea. 

Perhaps the most striking example occurred with the strike on Pskov airfield, some 700 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. On 29 August, the attack destroyed two of Russia’s roughly one hundred IL-76 heavy transport aircraft and damaged two other planes.

War of drones: can Ukraine keep its assymetric advantage?
We've documented key drone attacks on Russian targets. The Pskov airfield strike, 700km from the border, stands out.https://t.co/xUDTFMYkWw

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