Weekly Frontline Update: Russia burns resources in Avdiivka, while Ukrainians expand bridgehead in Kherson Oblast

The Russian army continues its massive onslaught on Avdiivka in the Donetsk Oblast (eastern Ukraine), attempting to encircle the Ukrainian stronghold. Russian troops suffer heavy losses but fail to break through the Ukrainian defense and cut off key supply routes to the Avdiivka garrison.

However, Russian pressure on the eastern front forced the Ukrainian military command to redeploy troops from the Zaporizhzhia Oblast (southeastern Ukraine) to reinforce the Avdiivka sector. Thus, despite minor territorial gains, the Avdiivka offensive helped Russia divert Ukrainian forces away from the southern front, where Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is still underway.

While Russia is stepping up its attacks on the eastern front to seize the strategic initiative, the Ukrainians continued to expand their bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the Russian-occupied part of the Kherson Oblast (southern Ukraine), about 90 kilometers from Crimea. According to Russian military bloggers, Ukraine’s Armed Forces have started to move armored vehicles across the Dnipro River.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Armed Forces used homemade kamikaze drones and Western-supplied Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG and ATACMS missiles to pound military targets in Russian rear areas. Ukrainian strikes have inflicted significant damage on the Russian Black Sea Fleet and air defense systems in occupied Crimea (southern Ukraine).

Avdiivka meat grinder

Russia launched its onslaught on Avdiivka on 9 October 2023. After almost a month of heavy fighting, Russian troops managed to advance a little on the flanks north and south of Avdiivka. However, this advance came at a great cost and did not solve any of the tasks set by the Russian command.

Tactically, capturing Avdiivka allows Russia to control vital roads and the railway to Donetsk, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014. Avdiivka is less than ten kilometers north of Donetsk, a key Russian logistics hub in eastern Ukraine. Control over Avdiivka allows Ukraine’s Armed Forces to strike at all Russian ground lines of communication around Donetsk.

The Russian plan to encircle and occupy Avdiivka in a stunning blitzkrieg of mechanized brigades supported by aviation and artillery has failed. The Russians did not cut off the Ukrainian key supply route (highway 0542) west of Avdiivka and failed to occupy the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, which is a gateway to the city from the northeast. Without the capture of the coke plant, the stability of the Avdiivka’s defenses can hardly be disrupted. This heavily fortified area remains under complete Ukrainian control.

Although Russian forces have managed to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from a forty-meter-high slag heap (Avdiivka Terrikon) east of the Avdiivka coke plant, Ukrainian artillery fire (including shelling with cluster munitions) and kamikaze drone attacks are preventing the Russians from gaining a foothold and concentrating forces on this strategically important height.

According to the spokesman for the Tavria operational group of forces of the Ukrainian Army, Oleksandr Stupun, Russia has deployed up to 40,000 troops to the Avdiivka sector.

Ukraine also reinforced the Avdiivka garrison, having redeployed the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade from the Zaporizhzhia direction. This brigade, equipped with US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and German-made Leopard main battle tanks, had previously taken part in the Ukrainian counteroffensive on the southern front, mainly near Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Both sides have enough reserves to continue the battle of Avdiivka for a long time. Despite heavy casualties, there are no signs that the Russian leadership is ready to abandon its attempts to encircle the Ukrainian stronghold and redirect its efforts to other, more strategically significant parts of the front.

According to an independent OSINT monitoring group, GeoConfirmed, Russia suffered the greatest losses northeast and southwest of Avdiivka.

These are the areas of the biggest concentration of Russian forces and the main directions of the Russian offensive on the flanks of Avdiivka, designed to encircle the city. The Russian army managed to advance slightly on the northern flank, from occupied Krasnohorivka to Ukrainian-controlled Stepove. The frontline northeast of Avdiivka now runs along the railroad tracks.

Although Russian troops have already crossed the railroad tracks in some places, Ukrainian artillery is preventing them from gaining a foothold. According to Yurii Butusov, a Ukrainian war reporter, Russian troops are slowly but steadily advancing north of Avdiivka through a narrow corridor in the lowlands up to 4 kilometers wide.

“From this corridor, they [the Russians – ed.] are trying to cut Ukrainian supply lines to Avdiivka, which are 8 kilometers wide. Most of the enemy’s rotations and reserves are defeated while still moving forward, as Ukrainian troops securely hold the flanks and control the dominant heights with convenient sectors of fire. The Russian infantry suffers significant losses, and it is much harder for the enemy to advance and hold their positions than for us to defend. The situation near Avdiivka poses much more risks for Russian troops than for us. The Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade is demonstrating exceptional combat capability and reliably holding the city, preventing the enemy from getting a foothold in the urban area.” Yurii Butusov wrote on Telegram.

Southwest of Avdiivka, Ukrainian troops have halted the Russian advance near Sievierne and Opytne. The Russians continued their attempts to expand the foothold in the area of the sand quarry near the village of Opytne. However, the Ukrainians have much more favorable positions in terms of tactics, holding the flanks of the Russian breakthrough well, according to Yurii Butusov.

After the failure of the first two waves of the massive onslaught on the northern and southern flanks of the Avdiivka sector, the Russian army adjusted its offensive tactics. During the first stages of the offensive in mid-October, Russian forces attacked fortified Ukrainian positions with columns of tanks and armored vehicles.

Artillery of the 31st Brigade, 110th Brigade, 116th Brigade Combat Team destroyed columns of Russian occupiers during an assault near Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Oblast

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