Weekly Frontline Update: Russian forces advance on eastern front, Ukraine takes out Russia’s warships and aircraft

After more than four months of heavy fighting, the Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka in the Donetsk Oblast (eastern Ukraine) fell to Russian forces. Last week, Russian troops cut off key ground lines of communication that Ukraine used to supply the Avdiivka garrison and evacuate the wounded. As the encirclement of the Ukrainian forces loomed, the newly appointed Commander-in-Chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi decided to withdraw all Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka.

Shortly after Russian troops occupied Avdiivka, the Russian military command renewed attacks on Ukrainian positions on the southern front, attempting to capture Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast (southeastern Ukraine), which Ukraine’s Armed Forces liberated during the summer counteroffensive in 2023.

At the same time, the Russian army managed to advance in other parts of the eastern front. Continuously bombarding Ukrainians with glide bombs and artillery shells of all possible calibers, the Russian army forced Ukrainian troops to withdraw from some positions in the Bakhmut sector (Donetsk Oblast), near Mariinka (Donetsk Oblast) and in the Kupiansk sector in the Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts (eastern Ukraine).

Thus, Russia has regained strategic initiative along the entire frontline, stretching more than 1,200 kilometers from the Mykolaiv Oblast in southern Ukraine to the Kharkiv Oblast in the east.

Due to the acute shortage of artillery shells, Ukrainians are forced to ration their ammunition. The Russians, on the other hand, have intensified their artillery fire and continued to rain aerial glide bombs on Ukrainian troops. The lack of air defense systems and fighter jets makes it difficult for Ukraine to counter Russia’s air superiority on the frontline.

Aerial bombs enable Russian advances on Avdiivka; encirclement looms

However, despite the limited means of destruction of Russian aircraft, last week Ukrainians managed to shoot down four Russian fighters and bombers in the skies over the occupied territories of Ukraine.

In the meantime, Ukraine continued to use long-range kamikaze drones to target strategic facilities deep behind the enemy lines inside Russia, hitting Russian oil refineries and weapons manufacturing plants in the Russian rear.

The situation for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet near occupied Crimea (southern Ukraine) has deteriorated after Ukrainian naval kamikaze drones destroyed another large Russian landing ship, Caesar Kunikov, near the occupied Ukrainian peninsula. This is the fourth large Russian landing ship destroyed by Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The fall of the Ukrainian stronghold

Russia launched its onslaught on Avdiivka on 9 October 2023, attacking the Ukrainian city from several directions simultaneously: from northeast, east, south, southwest, and southeast. After almost a month of heavy fighting, Russian troops managed to advance a little on the flanks north and south of Avdiivka.

However, this advance came at a significant cost and did not solve any of the tasks set by the Russian command. All key ground lines of communication of the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka remained under firm Ukrainian control, which allowed Ukraine to rotate its troops and supply them with ammunition, fuel, and food.

Tactically, capturing Avdiivka allows Russia to control vital roads and the railway to Donetsk, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014. Avdiivka is less than ten kilometers north of Donetsk, a vital Russian logistics hub in eastern Ukraine. Control over Avdiivka allowed Ukraine’s Armed Forces to strike at all Russian ground lines of communication around Donetsk using tube artillery.

After two months of the Avdiivka offensive, heavy casualties, and minimal territorial gains, Russia regrouped its forces for a new round of massive onslaught on the Ukrainian stronghold and continued infantry-led attacks (so-called “meat assaults”) on the northern and southern flanks of Avdiivka, attempting to encircle the city.

At the beginning of 2024, the Ukrainian defense of Avdiivka was stable despite constant Russian pressure on the flanks (south and north of the city). Ukraine’s Armed Forces effectively used kamikaze drones and cluster munitions to halt Russian infantry-led attacks in critical sectors of the Avdiivka defense.

Although the Russian military command continued reinforcing its grouping in the Avdiivka sector, Ukrainians kept holding the line. Russian territorial gains around Avdiivka were still minimal and did not threaten the imminent encirclement of the city.

In January 2024, Russia intensified its aerial bombardments of the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka, razing the city to the ground with glide bombs. Ukrainian troops in the Avdiivka sector had to withstand dozens of air strikes daily.

Within a few months of the Avdiivka offensive, Russian bombs turned the city into a pile of ruins. Before the Russian invasion, around 32,000 people lived in Avdiivka. Today, it is a ghost town destroyed by Russian air strikes and relentless artillery fire. Most people have already left the city, fleeing indiscriminate Russian shelling and non-stop aerial assaults. In December 2023, the population of Avdiivka was estimated to be around 1,300 people.

This is how a guided aerial bomb attack far away looks like

Russia has a near limitless supply of these cheap& powerful bombs. With their help, Russia reduced Avdiivka to rubble that Ukrainians could no longer defend

Ukraine has no defense against these bombs, fired by Russian… pic.twitter.com/lfG6PTFzli

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) February 18, 2024

The Russian military command continued to amass forces and throw its troops in the meatgrinder of the Avdiivka offensive, attempting to capture the city’s northern suburbs and approach the Ukrainian garrison’s critical supply route.

Despite heavy losses, Russian troops advanced east of Stepove, a small town north of Avdiivka. Control of Stepove would allow the Russian army to approach the H0542 road and disrupt the logistics of the Avdiivka garrison. Without the fire control over the H0542 road and the capture of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, a heavily fortified area held by Ukrainian defenders northeast of Avdiivka, the Russians could not undermine the stability of Avdiivka’s defenses. Ukrainian troops continued to hold the line in these key areas of the Avdiivka sector and did not budge.

After the Russian offensive stalled north and east of Avdiivka, the Russian army shifted its focus to the southern flank and intensified attacks south, southwest, and southeast of the city. By the end of January, the situation for the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka significantly deteriorated after Russian troops infiltrated the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces through an underground water pipeline south of the city.

On 18 January, using an underground pipe, Russians entered the rear of Ukrainian troops on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka and took them by surprise. The Ukrainians found themselves outnumbered and surrounded. Some of the Ukrainian defenders were killed, and others were taken prisoner.

At the same time, the Russians managed to break through to the east of Avdiivka and entered the city, advancing block by block. At the beginning of February, the Ukrainian military command deployed reinforcements to the Avdiivka sector to stabilize the situation. The elite Third Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces joined the fight.

Russian vs Ukrainian forces are 7:1 in #Avdiivka

If in Bakhmut, Russians were mix of Wagner convicts & special forces, here Russian contingent is "best strike fist of Russian Federation in Ukraine," consists of GRU & Mechanized brigades, spox of 3 Separate assault brigade… pic.twitter.com/7oPjIMoqQp

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) February 15, 2024

Despite a huge 7:1 numerical advantage, the Russian forces were pushed away from the Ukrainian key supply route north of Avdiivka. However, the Russian army continued to deploy more reserves to outnumber Ukrainian defenders and pushed forward.

On 15 February, Ukrainian troops were forced to retreat after being almost encircled in the Zenith industrial zone, a heavily fortified area south of Avdiivka. The occupation of this area opened the gates to the city from the south. Russian troops entered the southern neighborhoods of Avdiivka and began to advance towards the city’s downtown up north, where other Russian units had already approached the key supply route for the Ukrainian garrison and cut it off.

Thus, the increasing Russian pressure to the north, east, and south of Avdiivka made the city untenable for the Ukrainian defenders. The cascading destruction of the defense lines in and around Avdiivka forced Ukrainian troops to retreat.

On 17 February, the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, ordered Ukrainian troops to leave the city to avoid encirclement. The four-month battle for Avdiivka was over.

“Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city. Our soldiers performed their military duty with dignity, did everything possible to destroy the best Russian military units, and inflicted significant losses on the enemy in terms of manpower and equipment. We are taking measures to stabilize the situation and maintain our positions. The life of military personnel is the highest value. We will take Avdiivka back,” Oleksandr Syrskyi wrote on Facebook.

According to the Russian media, Russia’s military command deployed 16 brigades (around 50,000 troops) to the Avdiivka sector to capture the Ukrainian stronghold. The congratulatory letter that Russian President Vladimir Putin sent to the commander of the Center grouping of the Russian army, Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev, responsible for the Avdiivka offensive, revealed the complete list of Russian military units that took part in the active phase of the operation:

• 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Central Military District
• 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Central Military District
• 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Mountain Brigade of the Central Military District
• 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Central Military District
• 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st AC
• 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st AC
• 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st AK
• 1454th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 1st AK
• 10th Tank Regiment of the 1st AK
• 6th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the Central Military District
• 80th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the Central Military District
• 239th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the Central Military District

At least four more Russian brigades reinforced the aforementioned units at various stages of the Avdiivka offensive.

Why Avdiivka fell to Russia

Ukraine deployed at least 14 military units (around 8,000 troops) at different stages of the defensive operation in the Avdiivka sector. The list of Ukrainian units that took part in the defense of Avdiivka is as follows:

• 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade
• 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade
• 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade
• 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade
• 3rd Separate Assault Brigade
• 71st Hunting Brigade
• 68th Hunting Brigade
• 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade
• 36th Marine Brigade
• 35th Marine Brigade
• 129th Troop Carrier Brigade
• 25th Separate Airborne Brigade
• 503rd Separate Marine Battalion
• 45th Separate Rifle Battalion
• Omega Special Operations Forces unit
• The International Legion of Territorial Defence of Ukraine
• Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence units
• Separate Presidential brigade
• 24th Border Guard Detachment

Ukrainians managed to retreat from Avdiivka in an organized manner and maintain the combat capability of the units defending the city for many months. The capture of Avdiivka became a Pyrrhic victory for the Russian army due to the extremely high level of personnel and military equipment losses.

Russian FPV drone hits APC of 2nd Assault Battalion of 3d Assault Brigade, which was deployed to cover retreat of

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