Which taxes will Labour hike in the October Budget?

Speculation about which taxes Labour might raise in the Budget has continued to run wild over the past few weeks, with many commentators suggesting the speculation has damaged household and business confidence.

Shortly after taking office Chancellor Rachel Reeves claimed to have found a £22bn blackhole in the public finance, suggesting soon afterwards that taxes would have to rise.

Then, during his speech at the Labour conference, the Prime Minister vowed to use his “mandate for change” to “deliver national renewal.”

He also said Labour was “proud to be the party of wealth creation, unashamed to partner with the private sector”.

However, he reiterated his warning of “a difficult road ahead,” saying, “If this path were popular or easy, we would have walked it already.

The comments reignited speculation around which taxes will go up in October, in a Budget Starmer has already warned will be “painful.”

Still, the Prime Minister and his Chancellor have ruled out any changes to the main taxes, income tax, national insurance, VAT and corporation tax, which account for the bulk of government revenue.

So, which takes are likely to change under Labour’s watch?

Capital Gains

Many in the City are nervous that Rachel Reeves is preparing to lift the rate of capital gains tax, potentially moving it in line with the top rate of income tax.

The Chancellor has said she has “no plans” to do so, but has not explicitly ruled out such a measure.

Capital gains tax is imposed on the profit resulting from the sale of capital assets.

The highest rate is 28 per cent, much lower than 45 per cent additional rate of income tax. According to a report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), equalising capital gains and income tax could raise £16.7bn.

However, there are widespread concerns about the potential knock-on effects of hiking capital gains tax, particularly in the UK’s entrepreneurial landscape.

Many economists – and HRMC’s own analysis – suggests that increasing capital gains tax could actually reduce the tax take, because people are more likely to delay selling their assets.

Pension ‘death tax’

Another potential option for Reeves is to reduce the extent of tax relief on pension contributions.

A report released by the Fabian Society outlined a swathe of options which, cumulatively, could raise around £10bn per year.

Existing tax reliefs, the think tank argued, are weighted in favour of the rich. Although upper-and top-rate taxpayers account for 19 per cent of those paying tax, they received over half of the tax relief on pensions in 2022-23.

The Fabian Society outlined a range of measures which they argued would create a fairer system, most prominently by cutting the amount pensioners are able to withdraw from their pension pots without paying tax.

The think tank also suggested that pensions should be subject to inheritance tax and that there should be a flat rate of relief on contributions.

Currently, pension contributions are tax deductible, with the extent of tax relief depending on someone’s marginal tax rate.

Other think tanks, such as the IFS, have cautioned against introducing a flat rate of tax relief, although there is broad agreement that some of the more generous tax breaks could go.

The calls have sparked concerns of a pension ‘death tax.’

Council tax

Think tanks have been urging the government to reform council tax for years, and its not difficult to see why. Council tax bands are based on property valuations taken back in 1991, which the IFS said is “increasingly absurd”.

Since 1991, house prices have changed dramatically and unevenly across the country. An IFS report suggests that the average price in London is now more than six times what it was in 1995, compared with barely three times in the North East.

In effect this means households in the midlands and the north are in too high a band while households in the capital are in too low a band.

For example, according to analysis conducted by the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, the annual council tax bill in Westminster is £973 whereas it its £2,278 in Hartlepool.

Inheritance tax reforms

Inheritance tax is one of the UK’s most controversial taxes. Under the last government there were frequent rumours that it might be abolished, but now it looks like it could be subject to important reforms.

Currently inheritance tax stands at 40 per cent and is paid on estates worth over £325,000. However, there are a range of exemptions which mean only five per cent of deaths are taxed and often at a much lower effective rate.

Under the current rules, savings kept in defined contribution pension pots can be passed on tax free. Agricultural land can also be passed on without paying tax while shares in London’s AIM market receive special treatment if held for two years before death.

The IFS has argued that the government could raise an extra £4bn by closing these loopholes in the inheritance tax system.

However, City figures have warned that London’s AIM is under threat of “irrecoverable damage” if Labour scraps the inheritance tax relief on the junior market’s stocks.

The move risks crashing the market for small companies in the UK and could even be a “Liz Truss moment” for the new Chancellor, Darius McDermott, managing director of FundCalibre, told City A.M.