Who’d be ambassador to President Trump?

Peter Mandelson and David Miliband are rumoured to be in the frame for British ambassador to Washington, but only if Kamala Harris wins. That’s a mistake. A Trump victory would demand a diplomatic heavyweight, says Eliot Wilson

By the beginning of next year, Dame Karen Pierce will have served as British ambassador to the United States for nearly five years, the longest stint in Washington since Sir Christopher Meyer in the Blair/Bush era. She will be 65 in a fortnight and can look back on a broadly successful tenure, the culmination of more than 40 years in the Diplomatic Service. Her replacement will be chosen in November and is likely to take over in January.

I sometimes imagine diplomats and foreign policy experts playing a parlour game in which they try to describe the “special relationship” between the United States and Britain without using the phrase “so-called”. We should rightly avoid placing too great a burden on the concept, but our dealings with Washington remain our most important bilateral relationship and every government should nurture and protect it.

The US and the UK are each other’s largest source of foreign direct investment, worth a total of £1 trillion. A total of 1.2m Americans work for British companies in the United States and 1.5m British citizens are employed by American firms. Bilateral trade in goods and services last year exceeded £300bn and is rising steadily. In addition, while we should be realistic about our influence, the United Kingdom remains America’s most important – and most reliable – geostrategic ally.

Managing this complex but critical relationship on a day-to-day basis requires a first-class ambassador in Washington. We know that the next envoy will not be Sir Tim Barrow: the current national security adviser was given the nod informally by Rishi Sunak in April, but this was rescinded as soon as Sir Keir Starmer entered Downing Street. Instead, the Prime Minister will wait until after the presidential election on 5 November to choose a candidate, so that he can factor in relations either with President Trump or with President Harris.

Political appointee or professional?

It is an open secret that Starmer is considering appointing a political figure rather than a professional diplomat to the post. This is not unprecedented: in the past century or so, former ministers James Bryce, Viscount Grey of Fallodon, Sir Auckland Geddes, the Earl of Halifax, Lord Harlech and John Freeman all served as ambassador, while James Callaghan appointed the economics editor of The Times (and his son-in-law) Peter Jay. But the current understanding is that Starmer will only send a senior political figure to Washington in the event of a Democratic victory; if Trump resumes the presidency, a career foreign office mandarin will likely be selected.

This is entirely the wrong way round. Labour’s relations with a Harris/Walz administration would be straightforward, two left-of-centre former public prosecutors with similar ideological instincts. But acting as interlocutor between Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer would require a much more sophisticated skill set and sensitive political antennae.

The names most frequently mentioned in this regard are New Labour architect Lord Mandelson, former foreign secretary David Miliband, ex-EU foreign affairs chief Baroness Ashton of Upholland and Sir Tony Blair’s former chief of staff Jonathan Powell. Depending on whom you believe, Mandelson has either made a direct bid for the job or has distanced himself from consideration, and is currently seeking election as chancellor of the University of Oxford.

A re-elected President Trump would regard the appointment of a political heavyweight as (appropriate) respect and recognition; his vanity should never be underestimated. A former cabinet minister would bring the sharp edge of political judgement to a delicate situation, and all four of those mentioned above are familiar faces within Washington’s Beltway. Mandelson’s time as EU trade commissioner and business secretary to Gordon Brown would be particularly valuable.

The Prime Minister has little in common ideologically or personally with Donald Trump. But the relationships which require most effort are the difficult ones, not the easy ones. There are half a dozen Whitehall veterans who would be successful ambassadors to President Kamala Harris. A Republican victory in November would raise the stakes for Britain: Mandelson or Powell would be strong choices, as would Blair or Brown, improbable though that might be. A figure who enjoys huge US popularity, HR The Prince of Wales, might be a step too far for Starmer…

Eliot Wilson is co-founder of Pivot Point group