Why Is Nikki Haley Struggling in South Carolina? ‘Relationship Management 101’

Before Nikki Haley, there was another sharp and ambitious South Carolina Republican whose two-term record as a conservative governor fueled presidential speculation. It was her immediate predecessor, Mark Sanford.

Sanford, in fact, had encouraged Haley to run for governor when few others saw a path for her to make the leap from state legislator to chief executive. They had been political allies, both viewed as outsiders by a clubby legislature.

Sanford’s support was a valuable asset until it wasn’t — his career exploded spectacularly after the 2009 revelation of an extramarital affair with a woman in Argentina. Haley nevertheless managed a come-from-behind victory in a crowded GOP primary field, establishing herself as a formidable political character.

Sanford, whose relationship with Haley has since been strained, remains one of South Carolina’s shrewdest political observers. I called him up ahead of the Feb. 24 GOP primary to get his take on how the state’s politics have shifted in recent years — and why Haley is down in the polls in her home state.

Sanford also knows what it’s like to tangle with Donald Trump. After a self-described “hermitage phase,” he made an improbable comeback and won a 2013 special election to the U.S. House, marking his second stint in Congress. He later emerged as a frequent Trump critic, going so far as to call out the “cult of personality” surrounding the former president. Sanford’s refusal to bend the knee caught up to him in 2018, when he was defeated in a GOP primary by a pro-Trump challenger — his only loss at the ballot box in three decades of running for office.

At this point, Sanford doesn’t see much hope for Haley against Trump. It would take “a meteor strike” for her to win, he says. Other than that, Sanford figures, her best chance is if Trump self-destructs and defeats himself, “which he's perfectly capable of.”

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Nikki Haley was first elected governor in 2010, prior to the onset of the Trump era. There’s been quite a bit of population growth in South Carolina since then, and I imagine the electorate looks a lot different now. Is that true? Does that work to her advantage or disadvantage in the 2024 campaign?

It's a mixed bag. To her advantage is the fact that a lot of the folks moving to the coast of South Carolina, in particular — and to a lesser degree, the upstate of South Carolina — are formerly urban, more affluent retirees. You've got a major influx of people who, unlike the Bible Belt of our state, would fit the Rockefeller Republican profile of being less stringent on social issues and still caring about finance. A retiree on Kiawah is probably an ideal Haley voter, versus somebody who's been indigenous to the state, who’s maybe blue-collar and probably more of a Trump voter.

[But] muscle memory counts in politics. And it's been 10-plus years since anybody's actually pulled a lever for Nikki. That's a long time in the world of politics.

Why is the state political establishment almost universally aligned against her? How much of that is about Trump, and how much of that is about Haley herself?

Probably a 60-40 split. Most of it is Trump. People see that if that's the train leaving the station, then that's the one that they want in on. The name of the game for most people in politics is staying in the game. And therefore, they're going to tend toward the candidacy that they perceive to be the winning one versus not.

I’m not blaming her, but many around the state would argue she hasn’t kept in touch or maintained the relationships that people like in the world of politics. It’s telling that somebody like Mikee Johnson, who grew up not that far from Nikki, a longtime personal friend, who ran both of her inaugurals, ended up being finance chair for Tim Scott. How in the world does that happen?

Look at the people that were raising money for Tim — the political infrastructure of our state shifted from Nikki over to Tim. I think a variety of things contributed to that. But I'd call it relationship management 101.

Dating back to last summer and all the way through late January, Trump has been well ahead in all of the South Carolina polls, typically by 25 percentage points or more. What would have to fall into place for Nikki Haley to make up that ground in the next few weeks?

A meteor strike.

I'm not out there, I'm not actively involved in politics. I just hear from people because many of my friends were in that world and still are. I’m not seeing movement. I’ll tell you what could change: Trump beating Trump, which he's perfectly capable of. The fact that after the New Hampshire primary, they just teed off on Haley. Are you kidding me? Politics 101 would say you don't even acknowledge her. You say, “I'm so grateful to the folks in the state who reflected what happened just a little while ago in Iowa, and now it's on to the general election.” You go bash on Biden some and move on. It was so weird.

In 2016, Tim Scott, Marco Rubio and Nikki Haley appeared on stage together in South Carolina. Scott and Haley endorsed Rubio's presidential campaign amid much talk about generational change and a new group of conservatives. This year, Rubio and Scott endorsed Trump back in January before Haley even had a chance to compete. What should we make of that? And what does it say about the contemporary Republican Party?

It's a monument to people’s desire to remain relevant in politics. I don’t even know how you look yourself in the mirror when Trump’s said the things he said about Marco Rubio, and then you go endorse the guy? Or Ted Cruz, after what he said about his wife? I mean, it's awful stuff. And you're going to go endorse the guy? It's a monument to the degree to which people will do most anything that they perceive to be in their best interests politically, never mind the look-yourself-in-the-mirror phenomenon.

But it’s also a reminder of how strong Trump’s lock is on the base. I mean, it's real.

So what is it about Donald Trump that gives him the kind of hold that you're talking about on many Republican voters?

It's interesting. I saw it back in 2008, when Trump wasn't even around. You had the [Ross] Perot phenomenon that led into the Tea Party phenomenon that led to the Trump thing. And in each case, it's metastasized and made itself a little bit worse each go round from the standpoint of reason and logic and those kinds of things.

But the origin is pretty pure and very real.

He has become a proxy for breaking the system, breaking the established way of doing things that has not worked for them and those they love. That's powerful stuff when you become a proxy for some much bigger need or want of the voters.

You launched a brief long shot campaign against Trump in advance of his 2020 reelection bid. What lessons did you take from that experience, either about the modern primary process or about the challenge of running against Donald Trump?

Well, I never ran or intended to against Trump. The guys who support me said, “Look, nobody's talking about the debt and deficit issue that's always animated you. Yet we do need it talked about in this primary season and this election season. And you might — and it’s only a might — get a microphone and be able to elevate that issue.”

This is about the time they’re impeaching Trump, and so there was only one question, which is, are you for or against Trump? There was zero chance of getting that deficit message out. So after 60 days, I pulled the plug on it. I made clear I wasn’t delusional enough to think I had a shot against Trump. He was sort of at the apex of his power. But it was instructive. I mean, they wouldn't even hold a primary in South Carolina. There was just no ability to get your word out.

The degree to which folks circle the wagons — and they always circle it in politics — but the degree to which the Trump faction circles the wagons around their guy, is incredibly powerful. Also the degree to which he has a brand, tied to protecting and watching out for those who haven't necessarily gotten the long end of the stick, is incredibly real and incredibly powerful. Now, it's all a facade in my view. [Trump’s] some guy that's not worth as much as he says he’s worth, but a guy with a good bit, who’s spent his life as a Manhattanite, watching out for a blue-collar guy in Orangeburg, South Carolina — it’s not at the end of the day all that believable. But they believe it big time, and it is powerful.

So what happens if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee? Will you vote for him in November?

I will simply say this: I've not voted for Trump yet. I don't see me changing my voting pattern. But I'm not saying who I'm voting for.

Who do you wish would run for president?

I wish some real business guy would run. I guess it's a pipe dream. That was the pipe dream of the Perot phenomenon.

If you talk to real estate guys in New York, [Trump] had one hit, which was the Trump Tower. But the rest were losers, he has not done well. He shorted a lot of subcontractors and contractors and other people. But he made his money as a reality TV star, and that sort of bailed him out from an otherwise lackluster real estate career. And to have a real business guy that made real business decisions and actually did well at that process would be my dream. But I don't have a name that goes with it.