Why there’s no hope of a Bakerloo Line extension or Crossrail 2 without government cash

Transport for London (TfL) is set to report its first-ever operating surplus later this month after years of financial struggle.

The body has been facing a financial “cliff edge” ever since the pandemic wiped out passenger numbers and has relied on government funding to keep going.

Londoners would be forgiven for thinking this could be a turning point, with passenger numbers now at 90 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, boosted in large part by the Elizabeth Line.

Yet TfL is undeniably still in the lurch and will need more cash from Whitehall to solve a host of issues on its network and push forward with major infrastructure upgrades.

The Bakerloo and Central Lines are creaking, with ageing rolling stock contributing to delays and cancellations.

The Bakerloo Line trains are more than 50 years old and over a decade past their intended sell-by-date. It has got so bad that campaigners and London boroughs have said the route could face “critical failure” without urgent capital funding.

Meanwhile, the Central Line has introduced an emergency timetable and has operated at points with not even half of the 78 trains needed to run a peak service.

Granted, the government has stepped up with more than £6.6bn since the pandemic and a much-requested £250m funding package late last year.

But it just isn’t enough and there was no mention of a long-term deal in Wednesday’s Spring Budget. The funding so far has kept the network alive but has left no room for growth, investment or infrastructure upgrades.

As of November, the tube operator was only able to fund three-quarters of its capital investment programme for 2024/25. It said at the time an injection of around £500m to £600m annually would be enough to invest in maintenance and future upgrades.

That means the £250m in December was only half of what TfL had requested and Khan warned on Thursday that even despite the historic year, “we will not have enough money to invest in rolling stock, to invest in signalling, to invest in major roads and renewal.”

On top of upgrades to the Central and Bakerloo Line, TfL also wants to build new trams in Croydon.

And following the success of the Elizabeth Line, there are £30bn-£40bn proposals for Crossrail 2, which would involve huge upgrades across the capital and create 60,000 jobs.

None of these projects will be possible without more Department for Transport (DfT) cash, Khan said yesterday. “We really do need a long-term deal from the government.”