Why Trump’s path to beating China runs through Kyiv

While Donald Trump views Ukraine as a European distraction from confronting China, Beijing's coordinated axis of Russia, Iran, and North Korea reveals why victory in Kyiv is crucial to breaking Chinese power.

Nov 15, 2024 - 20:00

Why Trump's path to beating China runs through Kyiv

Donald Trump’s victory demands a fresh analysis of geopolitical realities. What appear as separate crises – Russia’s war on Ukraine, North Korea’s threats to South Korea, and Iran’s Middle East destabilization – mask a coordinated strategy. China stands behind these seemingly disconnected flashpoints, orchestrating an “axis of evil” that operates as a single system. And Ukraine, at the frontline of resistance, holds the key to breaking this axis.

Trump sees China as the primary US threat

To understand the new US administration’s logic, let’s examine the global chessboard through their eyes. Trump’s team sees China as the primary threat – a perspective that radically changes their view on all current conflicts, including Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Trump has surrounded himself with people who are committed to preventing Chinese global dominance and restoring US leadership in economics, geopolitics, and security. Their main weapon? Economics—specifically, an open trade war. Trump’s signature approach is to start with aggressive positioning and then navigate toward compromises that ultimately favor US interests while forcing Chinese concessions.

The Russia-Ukraine war, at least until North Korea’s involvement, has been viewed mainly as a European matter, not a US priority. For Trump’s administration, it’s an issue that essentially prevents the United States from concentrating on China.

Ukraine’s critical task now is to demonstrate to Trump and his circle that Russia’s aggressive war is actually part of a broader axis of malign activity led by China.

Reality check: China is the “axis of evil” coordinator

Until now, including in Ukraine, it’s been assumed the axis of evil consists of Russia, North Korea, and Iran, with China appearing uninvolved. The reality is different: China forms the skeleton and infrastructure of this axis, providing everything from raw materials and financing to military and political support.

Consider the mechanisms: Russia-North Korea or Russia-Iran cooperation flows through Chinese infrastructure. North Korean ammunition for Russia? Russian oil sales to China fund it. Russia earns yuan, invests in North Korea, and then buys Chinese materials and machinery to produce these munitions. Meanwhile, technology flows between all parties, particularly from China to Iran.

The new US administration needs to understand this axis is inseparable from China. Both Biden’s team and some Trump advisors believed Russia could be peeled away from China – an impossible dream now. Russia has become China’s proxy, waging war in Ukraine and conducting hybrid operations globally to diminish American influence.

China’s strategy extends beyond military affairs. Before Russia’s invasion, they planned major infrastructure investments in Ukraine as part of Belt and Road, while now they target ports near Georgia’s Abkhazia and in Moldova’s Giurgiulesti. Their ultimate goal? Separating America from Europe, potentially making Europe their ally against the US.

While Trump opposes China, his rhetoric about European problems being separate from American ones inadvertently aligns with this Chinese strategy of divide and conquer.

North Korea case study reveals the alliance’s anatomy

The close cooperation between Russia and North Korea starkly reveals the axis of evil’s structure. Trump once tried reasoning with Kim Jong Un – unsuccessfully. Since then, Kim has leveraged massive Chinese and Russian investments to rebuild his defense complex, creating a growing threat to South Korea. Each day, Russian funding and technology for ballistic missiles and submarines tips the regional balance further.

This Russian investment in North Korea has created a critical challenge for the US. For Trump’s circle, it demonstrates why Ukraine must remain strong and Russia contained. Through BRICS, SCO, and Iran-North Korea connections, Russia serves as China’s tool for advancing anti-American policies.

This extends beyond Ukraine alone. China views Ukraine as a US proxy, fueling Russia’s war through North Korea and Iran. A Ukrainian defeat would mark China’s victory, not Russia’s. Any talk of freezing the war at Ukraine’s expense would signal American weakness – a crucial point that must be understood.

The great economic divorce of the US and China

The US and China are like conjoined twins. Modern China emerged from American investment – Chinese communists and American capitalists crafted a symbiosis that served both sides. Through the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, America transferred manufacturing, investment, and technology to China. While the US prospered financially, it hollowed out its industrial base, birthing the Rust Belt.

Americans assumed their nuclear superiority would deter Chinese militarization – a miscalculation that led to today’s predicament. Now, the US must sever this connection. The process will be painful for America’s economy, but technological transition offers an escape route.

As they decouple from China, America will undergo technological transformation. Elon Musk symbolizes this shift – replacing cheap Chinese labor with robotics. Trump envisions returning production to American soil, powered by automation and new technology.

This separation will trigger corporate bankruptcies, but cheap energy will sustain the economy—green energy will step aside for more affordable nuclear, oil, and coal. Though outcomes remain uncertain, Trump’s low-cost energy strategy could fuel economic growth and technological advancement.

Ukraine is key to breaking China’s power

Donald Trump champions tariffs, promising 60% on Chinese goods. But tariffs alone cannot break the axis of evil.

China’s potential countermove is devastating: strike Seoul, destroying South Korea’s industrial heart – Hyundai and Samsung production lines. This would trigger global collapse since iPhones, Samsung devices, and critical microelectronics are made in Korea. A strike on Taiwan would compound this crisis, leaving China as the world’s microelectronics monopolist.

Breaking the axis requires a comprehensive strategy: arming Ukraine while targeting Russia’s energy sector. Launch “Drill baby drill” – flooding world markets until oil hits $20, crushing Russia’s economy. When oil prices fall in late 2025, Russia faces an economic crisis – but Ukraine must hold until then. Only with this multi-pronged approach – military aid, energy warfare, and then tariffs – can Donald Trump weaken the entire axis.

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