Will heating bills be higher this winter? It depends on where you live

(NEXSTAR) – Finally some good news for your budget: Most U.S. households should plan to "spend about the same or less on energy than they did last winter," the Energy Information Administration predicts in its annual report. But there are some exceptions, the report admits.

The first big anticipated change is weather. Last year's winter was the warmest on record, which helped keep energy costs low. Long-range forecasts indicate the winter of 2024-2025 is expected to be colder, especially in northern states and the Midwest, which would hike up gas and electricity bills.

A state-by-state analysis of the federal report by MoneyGeek predicts Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Illinois and Kansas will see the largest increase in natural gas bills. How big that increase will be depends on the size of your home and how high you set your thermostat, but it probably won't break the bank for the average family. This year's bills in those states are expected to be $10 to $15 more per month when compared to last winter.

On the other hand, several states in the West are expected to pay less this winter. Alaska, Utah, Washington, Oregon and Wyoming families may end up saving money on their gas bill, according to the analysis.

How much more you can expect to spend this year also depends on the way you heat your house. The most common heating fuel is natural gas (45% of households), closely followed by electricity (43%). About 5% of households, mostly rural, use propane and 3% use heating oil (highly concentrated in the Northeast).

The EIA says households that primarily use electricity for heating should expect to pay about 2% more. People use heating oil and propane can expect steady or lower energy prices.

For homes heated with natural gas, the predictions differ substantially by region. Price drops are anticipated out West and down South, an 11% price hike is forecast for the Midwest, and the Northeast is set to remain pretty steady.