WP: Trump must avoid appeasement trap in Ukraine-Russia peace talks if he wants to end war

Expert Marc A. Thiessen cautions Trump against pursuing Ukrainian neutrality or disarmament, warning such concessions would mirror the failures of past agreements with Russia.

Dec 3, 2024 - 19:00

WP: Trump must avoid appeasement trap in Ukraine-Russia peace talks if he wants to end war

US President-elect Donald Trump must find mechanisms to increase the flow of US weapons to Ukraine when he takes office. Otherwise, he risks repeating the path of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, who promised peace but delivered the opposite by ceding Czechoslovakia to Hitler in 1938, says Marc A. Thiessen, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, according to The Washington Post.

Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he will ensure the war between Russia and Ukraine is quickly brought to an end. However, it’s unclear how Trump will push Moscow to peace negotiations with Ukraine. Sources in Trump’s team suggested that the new US president will possibly end the war at the expense of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This approach has raised concerns among allies about the future of US support for Ukraine and the potential for a peace deal that could favor Russian interests.

Thiessen reminded that after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine inherited the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal. In 1994, Ukraine Ukraine agreed to give up those weapons. In exchange, Russia pledged to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and to “refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.”

The US and the UK, also signatories of the Budapest Memorandum, promised to “provide assistance to Ukraine … if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression.”

“Those guarantees proved empty. In 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, in direct violation of the pledges Russia made in Budapest. In the face of this aggression, President Barack Obama’s administration failed to hold up the United States’ end of the bargain, refusing to provide Ukraine with weapons to defend itself,” said Thiessen.

According to the analyst, this means that Russia will violate any international agreement it signs to achieve its objective. The only way to stop Moscow is to show it that it’s impossible to capture Ukraine.

“If Trump wants a peace that outlasts his presidency, that agreement must create conditions that make a resumption of war impossible,” emphasized the expert.

Thiessen also suggests that Western security guarantees are ineffective without the backing of substantial military might. He asserts that a lasting peace will only be achievable when the Kremlin recognizes that any aggression towards Ukraine would entail a broader conflict, not solely with Ukraine but potentially involving other nations as well.

Additionally, the expert believes Ukraine must be sufficiently strong militarily to deter Russian ambitions for further territorial gains.

It means that, even if Trump manages to broker a peace deal, the fundamental need to arm Ukraine will persist, emphasizing that security guarantees from the West are meaningless without substantial military support.

“If Trump wants to avoid presiding over a historic failure like Budapest, he needs to avoid the trap of trying to appease Putin with promises of Ukrainian neutrality and disarmament,” Thiessen concluded.

Earlier, Mark Rutte, NATO’s Secretary-General, Trump that forcing Ukraine into a weak peace agreement with Russia could create a “dire threat” from global adversaries like China, Iran, and North Korea.

NATO chief warns Trump: forced Ukraine peace deal could embolden China, Iran, and North Korea

Rutte emphasized that a peace deal that fails to adequately support Ukraine would have serious implications not just for Europe, but for global security as well. He argued that such a deal would embolden authoritarian regimes.

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