Zeleskyy’s chief diplomat is out. What’s next for Ukraine’s foreign policy?

Ukraine’s record government overhaul reverberated through news headlines and power corridors around the world. Nearly half of Ukraine’s ministers have been replaced. In a major shuffle, the parliament approved the dismissal of seven key policymakers, including the heads of crucial wartime ministries of justice, European integration, and strategic industries.

The dismissal also extended to the national power grid operator Ukrenergo, tasked with maintaining electricity supplies amid resumed Russian attacks Arguably, one of the most controversial changes is the dismissal of Dmytro Kuleba, Zelenskyy’s long-serving foreign minister.

Kuleba, who assumed the role during Zelenskyy’s first year in office, seemed to embody stability in the country’s volatile government. Appointed in March 2020, the foreign minister navigated several wartime reshuffles that saw the removal of key figures, including Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and the “Iron General,” Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi.

After four years in the role, even a political heavyweight like Kuleba, often credited as one of the most professional members of Zelenskyy’s cabinet, passed the torch. Euromaidan Press has investigated the potential reasons behind Kuleba’s resignation and what to expect from his successor, Andrii Sybiha.

Less-than-smooth resignation

On 3 September, David Arakhamia, head of President Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party, announced a “day of dismissals,” promising to overhaul half of Ukraine’s government in its largest wartime shake-up. The following day, the government speaker released resignation letters from two vice-prime ministers, the head of Ukraine’s State Property Fund, and six ministers, including Ukraine’s long-standing foreign minister.

Kuleba’s resignation came as a surprise for many: just days before assuming resignation, he was holding talks with his EU counterpart, Josep Borrell. The negotiations covered advancing Ukraine’s EU membership and lifting restrictions on using long-range Western weapons against Russia, a top priority for Ukraine’s diplomacy in recent months.

The parliamentary vote on Kuleba’s dismissal was postponed on 4 September after lawmakers failed to approve the resignations of the head of Ukraine’s State Property Fund and the minister of reintegration. The following day, the vote succeeded on a second attempt, and the parliament approved Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha as his replacement.

While Kuleba’s resignation sparked widespread international reaction – with policymakers like US State Secretary Blinken and EU chief diplomat Josep Borell stressing his achievements – it received no official commentary from the President’s Office. According to insider information obtained by Suspilne, Zelenskyy reportedly stated that the minister “lacked the energy to push for the provision of weapons” during a meeting with his parliamentary faction on 4 September.

President’s Office tightens grip on foreign policy?

Experts believe that Kuleba’s failure to secure Western air defense supplies might have contributed to his resignation. The issue gained urgency in recent weeks as Russia resumed massive airstrikes against Ukraine’s war-weary energy grid, leading to nationwide blackouts. The government reshuffle, including the change of the foreign minister responsible for negotiating weapon supplies, may be seen as an attempt to mitigate reputational damage to the presidential office.

“The issue of the heating season, which will be the most challenging in Ukraine’s history of independence, adds urgency to the situation. Therefore, the government reshuffle serves as an important political signal both for Ukrainian society and for our external partners,” says political scientist, head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies Ihor Chalenko.

Another reason for Zelenskyy’s decision to replace Kuleba may be the contrast between their personal communication styles, which the presidential office may view as a factor in Kuleba’s failure to secure vital military provisions in the recent months.

“He did not want to adhere to a policy of applying too much pressure on partners and preferred to remain a diplomat,” says political scientist Maksym Yali. “Sources suggest that he struggled with the task of aggressively pushing for air defense systems and securing permission for Ukraine to use Western long-range weapons against deep targets within Russian territory.”

Experts agree that the issues surrounding weapon supplies, officially cited as the reason for the foreign ministry overhaul, are merely one aspect of a broader power struggle between the foreign ministry and the increasingly influential President’s Office over control of foreign policy.

“In recent years, we have observed a certain competition between the official Ministry of Foreign Affairs, led by Mr. Kuleba, and the President’s Office, which took on a significant portion of external communications, especially after the onset of the full-scale invasion,” says Ihor Chalenko.

This may indicate that by appointing Andrii Sybiha, who previously served as the deputy head of the Presidential Office, Zelenskyy’s inner circle, led by Andrii Yermak, is attempting to increase control over communication with Ukraine’s international allies.

What to expect from Mr. Sybiha

The newly appointed Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha started his diplomatic career in 1997 after graduating from the Ivan Franko University of Lviv with a degree in international relations.

In 2012, he was appointed as a director of the Consular Service Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

In 2016, Sybiha became Ukraine’s ambassador to Türkiye. His five-year tenure was marked by the signing of a bilateral free trade agreement and facilitating crucial joint projects in defense industries, like securing the procurement of Bayraktar drones, which ultimately led to establishing their production in Ukraine.

Additionally, Sybiha was instrumental in deepening the bilateral relationship between the defense and foreign ministers of both countries and assisting the new president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in establishing relations with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Namely, the last achievement may have influenced Sybiha’s rapprochement with the President’s Office, where he was appointed as a deputy head after the expiration of his ambassador’s term in 2021. This effectively made him Zelenskyy’s personal advisor on foreign policy.

Loyalty to Zelenskyy’s Office might well explain Sybiha’s latest career advancement, particularly amid the growing competition between the Foreign Ministry and the presidential office, experts believe.

In this context, the Office may view the new minister as the right choice to further Zelenskyy’s pressure on allies to secure Western military aid and gain approval for using Western weapons for deep strikes in Russia’s rear — areas where Zelenskyy’s assertive rhetoric sharply contrasted with Kuleba’s diplomatic style.

The new minister’s maiden Facebook post supports this version: in it, he outlined the same priorities. He stressed the “implementation of already allocated aid packages” and “removing restrictions on their use against targets on Russian territory,” echoing remarks allegedly made by Zelenskyy during the parliamentary faction meeting.

Analysts believe that the foreign minister replacement also sought to strengthen Zelenskyy’s position ahead of the upcoming Ramstein meeting of Ukraine’s military allies and the UN General Assembly, where the Ukrainian president is expected to present his victory plan to the Biden administration. However, while the government shake-up aims to signal a new strategy to Ukraine’s partners, it may take some time for a new appointee to achieve the same momentum set by his predecessor.

“It’s clear that Mr. Sybiha has been in the role of first deputy for some time and has experience from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, so he already has certain contacts. However, Kuleba was notably recognized for his strong informal connections — friendly relationships he established with our partners. Thus, it is essential for the new head of the foreign ministry to at least restore these crucial connections,” says Ihor Chalenko.

Another complication stems from ineffective communication with partners and the apparent political motivations behind the foreign ministry overhaul. This could potentially undermine the credibility of Zelenskyy’s office ahead of crucial international events that will determine Ukraine’s NATO accession and impact military and financial aid.

Moreover, questions remain about whether Zelenskyy’s more aggressive communication style will actually translate to more weapons.

“To counter these missile attacks, for example, Ukraine needs more air defense systems and missiles for them which it does not produce. So, the informational and PR components are unlikely to lead to any significant progress or results in this regard by the end of the year,” says Maksym Yali.

Related:

• Why did Ukraine reshuffle half its government amid war?